BY THE START of summer there was, against all the early expectations from unionist commentators, a mountain of polling evidence suggesting the events of the pandemic had been a setback for the anti-independence camp in Scotland. First up was a Survation poll showing that the Scottish Government was a more trusted source of information on the pandemic than any broadcaster, or any newspaper, or the UK Government itself. Then YouGov reported that a large majority of respondents across Britain, and a massive majority of respondents in Scotland itself, thought that Scotland had handled the crisis better than England. BBC Scotland also made a rare foray into political polling by commissioning an Ipsos- Mori survey, and discovered that the public had a negative perception of the UK Government’s reaction to coronavirus, and an extremely positive perception of the Scottish Government’s reaction.
In early June I commissioned a second Panelbase poll for Scot Goes Pop, and I used the opportunity to attempt to join up some of the dots. I asked respondents whether the handling of the crisis by Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government had left them “more confident or less confident that Scotland will be well-governed if it becomes an independent country”. By an extraordinary 3-1 margin, they said they were more confident. I also asked whether the handling of the crisis by Boris Johnson and the UK Government had left them “more convinced or less convinced that Scotland is safer if it remains part of the UK”. By the same 3-1 margin, they said they were less convinced. And finally I asked them whether they thought the Scottish people would be “more safe or less if the UK Government’s decision-making powers relating to the lockdown were transferred to the Scottish Government”. Once again, a 3-1 margin plumped for “more safe”.
Oh, and just for good measure, the same poll showed that 52% of respondents would vote in favour of independence in a new referendum, up 2% from the previous comparable poll a month earlier. So it wasn’t as if the underlying shift of attitudes had failed to shift the dial on the really important question.