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Political storm clouds gather over emerging markets

Counterpoint

Emerging market equities have had a good run in dollar terms on stronger global growth prospects, while US politics continues to influence the global market environment.

Since the start of 2017, however, the dollar has given back some of its post-election gains on concerns surrounding the implementation of president Trump’s growth agenda and declining optimism about the prospects for comprehensive US tax reform.

Despite reiteration from the Federal Reserve after its March interest rate hike that subsequent rate increases would be gradual and measured, a sharp, substantial increase in US interest rates and meaningful corporate tax reductions could theoretically divert investment from emerging markets to the US.

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