Steve Richards
Leaders alone cannot account for the outcome of all elections, and have never done so. Other factors are at least as decisive, such as the context in which an election is held and the state of the parties seeking to win. To take a precise example: if Tony Blair had become leader of his party in 1983 he’d have struggled— even with all the skills he applied as opposition leader 11 years later. Why? In 1983 the context for Labour was simply an impossible one for any leader to overcome.
The left was split, with the SDP still seemingly formidable. Margaret Thatcher had won by a landslide. Labour remained resistant to fundamental change. By 1994, Blair could thrive against a creaking Conservative government tearing itself apart over Europe. By then Labour had lost four elections and was ready to accept virtually any change to win.