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Digital Subscriptions > The Hedge Fund Journal > Issue 112 - March | April 2016 > The Great Turk Fund

The Great Turk Fund

Turkish economic forecast gives grounds for optimism

Emerging market investors in Turkish equities have been subjected to a roller coaster ride in recent years. Following 90.0%+ gains in 2009, as measured by the MSCI Turkey Index (€: +92.31%; $: +98.49%), which carried on, albeit more modestly, through 2010, the Index has alternated between significant double-digit rises and falls culminating in a (€ denominated) gain of 35.59% in 2014 and a fall of -23.76% last year.

This pattern of alternating returns has prompted chartists to predict a strong showing in 2016 and while I would agree with this forecast, I believe there are many other reasons beyond simple pattern recognition why one of the world’s most interesting emerging markets will and should attract investor interest this year despite the fact that many positive economic and financial indicators are currently overshadowed by geopolitics.

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