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Digital Subscriptions > The Hedge Fund Journal > Issue 141 – Jun | Jul 2019 > Gold

Gold

Impact from US and Chinese policies

Gold prices have been on a wild ride. Between 2000 and 2011, they rose from $280 to around $1,900 per ounce before falling back to $1,050 in 2015. Currently, they are trading close to $1,300 an ounce. Gold has made similar-sized moves when priced in the Chinese renminbi (CNH). From a CNH perspective, prices rose from 2,000 to 12,000 between 2001 and 2011 before falling back to 7,000 in 2015. Currently, it’s trading near 9,000 CNH (Fig.1). The similarity in performance relects the stability of CNH versus USD, staying within about a 25% range during the past two decades.

During this time, there were four main drivers of gold’s returns:

1) US dollar: the weaker the greenback, the better the performance of gold prices, generally.

2) US interest rates: the easier the US monetary policy, the better for gold, generally.

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