Europe: Taking Stock after Greece’s Bailout |

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Europe: Taking Stock after Greece’s Bailout

Why a lack of debt relief will cause another crisis

The European Union, European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) spent the first half of 2015 struggling over whether to allow Greece to default and possibly exit the euro, or to impose another round of austerity in return for more debt assistance. The austerity measures are severe, and if implemented as now planned, will almost certainly extract a high price from the Greek economy, potentially making it less able to service its debt in the future. Unless Greece gets some debt relief, as the IMF has advocated and Germany has resisted, we look for a much more difficult Greek crisis in 2017 or 2018. Also, the interest rate implications of the recent rounds of Greek debt negotiations for the ECB are that it will want to keep its low-rate policy on hold for a long time to come and continue its asset purchase program, meaning virtually no volatility in short-term euro Ibor. The results are a mixed picture for the euro and suggest that future euro strength will depend on more improved economic growth across the continent than on a change in ECB policy. (Fig.1 shows fluctuations in the euro).

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About The Hedge Fund Journal

INFORMING THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY With access to some of the industry’s biggest names and an astute and talented group of writers and contributors, The Hedge Fund Journal has established itself as a trusted source of information on the hedge fund industry. Highlights of Issue 106: Championing Customization: Amundi Alternative Investments Tackling UK Farming’s Funding Shortfall: Helping reform UK’s agriculture and alternative energy industries Shareholder Activism as Private Equity Allocation: The resurgence of the strategy a decade after first rising CME Group Crude Oil Spread Options Suite: Volumes advance with screen-based trading growing fastest Adding Dynamic Beta to Double Alpha: UBS Equity Opportunity Long Short UCITS