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The Long Wait

Risk assets struggle for impetus against negative newsflow

The uneventful meetings from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) earlier in September were broadly seen as a green light for risk assets, confirming that the largest actors behind the rise in asset valuations were still intent on keeping rates/yields at ultra-low levels. In the context of benign global economic data, continued stimuli in China, stabilised commodity prices and some repair work being carried out in emerging market countries, we believe that the very near term horizon (3-4 weeks) seems to present few areas of concern to justify a meaningful sell-off across markets.

Yet, since the immediate post 21 September Fed meeting uptick, the S&P 500 has found no strength, treasury yields are down over 15bps and the yen is almost up 1%. These moves are hardly a sign of investor confidence in risk assets, rather they are signs investors are not eager to buy into risk assets and are very nervous about valuations. The market has clearly failed to take the dovish central bank message positively and has instead focused its attention on any negative newsflow. Indeed, International Monetary Fund (IMF) comments on Portugal, Fitch comments on China’s debt binge, the resurgence of Trump in election polls and the number escalation from the US Department of Justice (DoJ) in financial litigation have not been brushed aside as mere distractions but duly reported on the radar screen.

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About The Hedge Fund Journal

INFORMING THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY With access to some of the industry’s biggest names and an astute and talented group of writers and contributors, The Hedge Fund Journal has established itself as a trusted source of information on the hedge fund industry.