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Post-Brexit Aftershocks on the Horizon

Impact examined

The Brexit vote on June 23 came as a massive shock to financial markets, especially the British pound, which fell from 1.50 to the US dollar to 1.29 within a matter of days. Across the English Channel, however, the euro took the news with remarkable equanimity, and remained firmly in the upper half of the narrow 1.04 to 1.15 to the US dollar range where it has been trading since February 2015.

The aftershocks of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union are only just beginning. The first came in late September when Prime Minister Theresa May announced a date to set Brexit in motion: March 2017, for invoking Article 50 of the European Union that deals with a membernation wishing to leave the economic and political grouping of 28 countries, including Britain. Markets perceived the setting of a date as increasing the probability of a “hard Brexit” in the absence of an agreement to extend Britain’s current relationship with the EU after a two-year withdrawal deadline in March 2019. More aftershocks may be on the way, and the pound may not be the only one reeling from the tremors.

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