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No Time for Certainty

ALAN J. SCOTT

It has been said that a person with one wristwatch always knows what time it is. A person with two is never quite certain. The person with two watches is tormented if each displays a different time. A passerby asking for the time of day will induce a semi-painful mental dissonance.

Most science and public policy issues resemble the two-watch scenario. More generally, we inhabit a world with uncertainty, inaccuracy, and imprecision. This inexactness stretches into all realms of our existence—science, politics, public policy, religion, social interactions, news media, environment, economy, and so on. Yet many are beckoned and drawn toward the over-simplicity and overconfidence found in consciously choosing to wear one watch. Bertrand Russell hits the bull’s-eye saying, “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts” (Russell n.d.).

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