Using the Science of Crowd Estimation to Debunk Extraordinary Estimates of Mega-Concerts

BY JOHN D. VAN DYKE

With the recent brouhaha over the Queen’s funeral crowd size, it might be interesting to explore the ways enormous crowd sizes have been determined in the past, and the science behind crowd estimation.

Way back in 1991, Paul Simon gave a free concert on his Rhythm of the Saints Tour in Central Park. Simon’s promotional poster read, “What If You Threw a Party and 750,000 People Came?” I recall thinking that seemed like an extraordinary number of people. The official tally, I was told later, was somewhere closer to 600,000.

So where did they get that “official” number? How did they count all those people?

Short answer—They didn’t! Until recently, extraordinary crowd claims kept growing—and without any supporting data. The 600,000 estimate was used for promotional purposes. In fact, attendance at Simon’s concert was probably much lower than the official estimates, as are official estimates for other concerts.

Those estimates come from the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation. According to their website,1 performances such as Simon’s have drawn crowds “estimated at hundreds of thousands.”