North Africa’s economic outlook will see some improvement over the next couple of years, but real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be limited to the 3% range. While Mauritania will feature the strongest growth rates, it is the large Egyptian economy with its 5% growth that will drive the region.
Oil producers will be hindered by weak revenues as the price of Brent crude oil is projected to fall from $64/barrel in 2019 to $62/barrel in 2020 and $56/barrel in 2021. Uncertainty surrounds the oil market, particularly the impact of the coronavirus, which is likely to reduce global oil prices further in the short term at least, and the questionable ability of Libya to maintain its production given political complications.
While the conflict between the United Nationssupported government and the Khalifa Haftar’s forces continues, Libya’s oil production expanded by more than 12% during the first ten months of 2019, which is expected to lead real GDP to expand by 9.0% for the full year.
It is important to note that the Libyan economy is still expected to be about one-third of its 2012 size due to the strong contraction recorded between 2013 and 2016.