In his recent book Project Europe, Kiran Klaus Patel describes the architecture of European integration as an edifice that reflects the continent’s history, “with round and pointed arches, with some windows bricked up and new ones broken through elsewhere, with extensions and conversions, ruins and follies.” Europeans built this edifice over the decades in fits and starts, often reluctantly, to meet different needs and challenges. It may look strange and fragile. But it is much stronger than it looks.
As we wonder how the war in Ukraine will change Europe, it is important to keep this picture in mind. Most probably, the war will not change Europe that much. Of course, as we have seen during previous crises, European policy priorities evolve over time. Right now, the EU is moving quickly to protect itself and its open structures—as well as making them more resilient to geopolitical threats. National defence budgets are rising, and the commitment to a common European defence policy is in fashion. A common energy policy is seriously taking off, industrial and agricultural policies are being adjusted and Ukrainian refugees are getting legal status in record time. But the way politics is done in Europe will not change. The EU’s edifice, patched up many times and in many styles since its inception in the 1950s, will probably just end up with a newly fortified garden wall and another turret or two.