Science denial has significant consequences. AIDS denial caused over 300,000 deaths in South Africa. Vaccination denial has allowed preventable diseases to make a comeback. Climate science denial helped delay sorely needed mitigation policies, committing us to direr climate impacts for decades to come.
Skepticism (by which I mean an evidence-based approach) is the antidote to denial. But skepticism doesn’t just apply to how we practice our science. It must also apply to how we communicate our science. There is a wealth of psychological research into the phenomena of denial and how to neutralize the influence of misinformation. To ignore this evidence when countering science denial and pseudoscience is, ironically, not a skeptical approach.
So what is an evidence-based response to science denial? To illustrate, allow me to use an example from my own area of research: the scientific consensus on climate change. The psychological principles emerging from this topic have implications that can be applied to many areas of science.
Scientific Consensus on Climate Change
What percentage of publishing climate scientists accepts human-caused global warming? This isn’t just an academic question; the answer has real-world consequences. On complicated scientific matters such as climate change, the average layperson uses expert opinion as a mental shortcut or heuristic. Psychologists have identified perceived consensus as a “gateway belief ” influencing their views on climate change and, most importantly, their level of support for climate action.
A number of studies have quantified the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming. A 2009 survey of Earth scientists found that among publishing climate scientists, 97.4 percent agreed that humans are significantly raising global temperature (Doran and Zimmerman 2009). A 2010 analysis of public statements about climate change found that among the scientists who had published peer-reviewed climate research, 97 to 98 percent agreed with the consensus position (Anderegg et al. 2010). I was part of a team that analyzed published climate research, finding 97.1 percent consensus among papers stating a position on human-caused global warming (Cook et al. 2013). In 2015, a survey of University scientists found 96.7 percent consensus among scientists conducting research about climate change (Carlton et al. 2015).