THE COVID-19 pandemic wiped six years of fleet growth from the global airline industry, according to aviation consultancy Oliver Wyman.
The commercial fleet is projected to grow by 28% over the next ten years, expanding from today’s 28,400 aircraft to 36,400 by 2034. However, the firm’s Anthony DiNota said: “Having clawed its way back from COVID, the industry is finally out of recovery mode and on a growth trajectory, but the pandemic is having a lasting impact. Before [the pandemic] the fleet was slated to reach 39,000 aircraft by 2030. This won’t happen until 2036, with COVID wiping out six years of growth.”
The forecast said the industry has now matched its pre-pandemic peak, but future gains will be slower. The fleet will expand 2.5% annually (compound annual growth rate) versus the 2.9% projected in last year’s 2023- 2033 forecast. Narrowbodies are expected to see a steady increase in their share of the fleet, rising from 61% in 2024 to 63% in 2034.