Scot Goes Pop

by James Kelly

If Labour fall well short of the pundits’ predictions, even if in doing so they make significant gains from the SNP, even if the SNP fall as low as they did in 2017 or perhaps even slightly lower, the psychological impact could be immense

THE SCOTTISH independence movement faces an emergency situation. Within a year, perhaps even less than that, there’s a genuine danger that the precious pro-independence majority among Scottish MPs at Westminster may have been lost.

Make no mistake: that is something we simply cannot afford to happen. Some indy supporters tell themselves that clearing out the supposedly useless parts of the SNP parliamentary party, even at the expense of replacing them with unionist MPs, would somehow be a positive in the long term because it would allow a more genuine pro-independence slate of candidates to rebound strongly at a future general election. But much more likely is that once the pro-indy majority at Westminster is gone, it’ll be gone for good. It was only the special circumstances of the immediate post-indyref period that allowed the SNP to make the breakthrough in 2015, and that electoral climate will be very difficult to recreate once Labour have their feet under the table again. The chances are that the preindyref pattern of Holyrood elections being competitive between SNP and Labour, while Labour are unassailable at Westminster, would be re-established.