KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON
THIS column has never rushed to predict blackouts, readily acknowledging the expertise and resources of the electricity grid operator, nowadays the newly established National Energy System Operator (NESO) in keeping the lights on (see
Eye
1637). However, on 8 January, a bitterly cold day, wind power collapsed and Britain came within a hair’s breadth of the dreaded “demand control” – compulsory disconnections of electricity supply, the grid’s last resort.
And NESO was at fault. Its October “winter outlook” was complacent, significantly underestimating peak demand and overestimating its safety margin. By 4.30pm on the day in question, NESO’s predicted 10 percent margin was by some measures a mere 1 percent; NESO claims 3 percent. Plant failure at a medium-sized power station or any of our electricity import sources could have spelled disaster. This narrow escape was achieved only by throwing more than £20m at whatever emergency sources NESO could find over a couple of peak hours.